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☆ With S&P back at new highs, now come the price target and earnings revisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.

Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie

☆ A top mind at UBS Global Wealth Management explains why investors' meltdown over elevated interest rates is misguided — and shares a 5-part investing blueprint as stocks continue to rise
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Less than a month ago, analysts were calling for subdued earnings growth of just 3%. Although higher rates can be a headache, Lefkowitz said earnings growth matters most. Instead of obsessing over when interest rates will fall, Lefkowitz said investors should consider the reasoning behind the Fed's decisions. "If rates are rising and that's leading to more confidence in the earnings growth outlook, then that shouldn't be a headwind to markets," Lefkowitz said. Follow this 5-part investing game planHealthy earnings growth and a resilient economy have strategists at UBS GWM bullish about US stocks.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, weren't, that's, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, —, shouldn't Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, UBS GWM, Bank of America, Federal, Healthcare

☆ 3 of Wall Street's biggest banks share what's next for markets after the largest earnings surprise in years — and 25 top stocks to invest in for stable, long-term profit growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve

☆ Hot inflation and high estimates could ruin the Q1 earnings season. Why investment chiefs are increasingly worried — and the bull case that profits are still underestimated.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Without strong profit progress in the Q1 earnings season starting in mid-April, US stocks may surrender their 8.2% year-to-date gain. Loftier estimates, top-heavy earnings are reasons for worryFirms have a rather low bar to clear in the upcoming earnings season, as is often the case. The market's largest companies are disproportionately driving earnings growth in addition to stock returns, Goldman Sachs found. The Q1 earnings season begins in earnest on Friday as big banks share results. Early reporters have beaten earnings estimates by 13.5%, Golub wrote, which he added is more than double the typical rate.

Persons: Richard Saperstein, James Ragan, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, we're, Saglimbene, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Jonathan Golub, Golub, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, Treasury Partners, DA Davidson, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bel Air Investment Advisors, UBS, Institute for Supply Management Locations: America

☆ UBS hikes its S&P 500 target to 5,400, highest on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

UBS just raised its S & P 500 year-end target to the highest among major Wall Street banks, saying it was "not bullish enough." "Despite our bullish outlook, it appears we were not bullish enough," Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at UBS, said in a note. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 Golub is not the only strategist raising his forecast. On average, strategists anticipate the S & P 500 will end the year at 4,961, according to a CNBC survey. The S & P 500 is higher by more than 4%, having notched fresh record highs in recent weeks.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Goldman Sachs Organizations: UBS, PPI, CNBC

☆ Top money managers warn that 2024 earnings expectations are getting out of hand, even as Wall Street firms scramble to raise their S&P 500 targets
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-18 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Goldman Sachs"We expect price increases to be driven by modest earnings growth and well-supported price-to-earnings multiples," wrote Austin Pickle, a strategist at WFII, in a January 16 note. Stucky continued: "I've never seen a re-acceleration in earnings growth — which is what the baseline expectation is for earnings — absent some sort of economic recovery or an acceleration in economic growth. He noted that many factors influence profits, but added that his forward model suggests there's earnings risk ahead. Bianco said he expects flat or mid-single-digit earnings growth for stocks in most sectors. However, he said that during expansions, GDP growth is a poor predictor of earnings growth.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Austin Pickle, Jonathan Golub, Golub, Matt Stucky, Stucky, I've, Brad Klapmeyer, He's, Klapmeyer, Anthony Saglimbene, —, Saglimbene, Saglimbene doesn't, David Bianco, Bianco Organizations: Business, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Macquarie Asset Management, DWS Group

☆ UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 is in for yet another strong year, according to UBS. The firm lifted its year-end target on the S & P 500 from 4,850 to 5,150, representing 7.7% upside for the benchmark stock index from Friday's close. The S & P 500 ended last week at 4,783.83. This year's more dovish Federal Reserve policy supports higher valuations, Golub said, upping his 2024 earnings-per-share estimate on the S & P 500 by $10 to $235. "While the S & P 500 advanced throughout 2023, leadership has become more pro-cyclical over the past 3 months, an indication of investor optimism toward the economy," Golub said.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, upping Organizations: UBS, Federal, Technology

☆ UBS sees big market swings and only slight gains for stocks in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-12 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

UBS is out with its 2024 outlook, and it expects some wild swings for markets next year. The Wall Street firm on Monday said it sees the S & P 500 ending next year at 4,850, roughly 5% above Monday's close of 4,622.44. Stocks have been on a tear recently, with the S & P 500 riding a six-week winning streak. "The large spread between current strength and expected weakness presents a dilemma for investors," Golub wrote Monday. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said he anticipates the S & P 500 will end next year at 4,700 , just a stone's throw from where the broader index is currently trading.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Stocks, Golub, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, UBS Investment Bank, Bank, America's

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Too high a number could fan fears of the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer or hiking them more in coming months. That would give investors less reason to hold onto stocks after a tech-led drop in which the S&P 500 lost about 5% from summer highs. Reasons for optimism include the relative outperformance of the U.S. economy compared to Europe and China, and signs the so-called profit recession among S&P 500 companies may be over. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector lost more than 2% this week following news that Beijing had ordered central government employees to stop using iPhones for work. Still, much of the bull case for stocks hinges on softer inflation eventually pushing the Fed to lower interest rates.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Michael Purves, Randy Frederick, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Tallbacken Capital Advisors, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Technology, Apple, Huawei, Chief, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Credit Suisse Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Europe, China, Beijing

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investor hopes for US soft landing ride on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Relentless U.S. stock rally faces Fed test
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% year-to-date and closed on Thursday at 4,534.87, only about 6% below an all-time high reached in January 2022. What the Fed does and says next week will be critical," said Cliff Corso, chief investment officer at Advisors Asset Management. "Bearish investors have had to capitulate," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. The bank last month raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 4,500, from 4,000. However, Christopher Tsai, chief investment officer at Tsai Capital, is not worried about buying into an overvalued market.

Persons: Cliff Corso, Jonathan Golub, Tom Lee, Ed Yardeni, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Eric Freedman, Goldman Sachs, Sunitha Thomas, We've, Christopher Tsai, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Fed, Asset Management, Jonathan Golub of Credit Suisse, Fundstrat Global, Yardeni Research, National Association of Active Investment, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Consumers, Northern Trust, Tsai, MSCI Inc, Zoetis Inc, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jonathan Golub of

☆ China's sagging economy looms over quarterly results around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Noel Randewich | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

July 20 (Reuters) - China's frail growth could weigh on companies with exposure to the world's second-largest economy, including Apple (AAPL.O), big chipmakers and luxury retailers as they report quarterly results in the next few weeks. China accounted for 36% of NXP's revenue last year and half of Texas Instruments' revenue. Analysts estimate NXP reporting a 3.2% drop in quarterly revenue, with Texas Instruments' revenue tumbling 16%, which would be its steepest drop since 2009, according to Refinitiv. The specialty glass maker blamed "anticipated recession-level demand" for weak results in its previous quarterly report last April. Coffee maker Starbucks (SBUX.O) in May reported quarterly results that beat estimates, powered by recovering demand in China.

Persons: Ross Mayfield, Baird, Cartier, Richemont, Bernstein, Tesla, Jonathan Golub, hobble, David Klink, Noel Randewich, Chavi Mehta, Caroline Valetkovitch, Mimosa Spencer, David Gaffen, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Apple, U.S, Shanghai, ABB, HK, NXP Semiconductors, Texas, Texas Instruments, . Credit Suisse Chief, Equity, Corning Inc, Samsung Electronics, Huntington Private Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Swiss, Asia, ., China . U.S, Washington, Beijing, Oakland , California, Bangalore, New York, Paris

☆ Credit Suisse ups S&P 500 year-end forecast to 4,700
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse increased its year-end target on the S&P 500 (.SPX) to 4,700 from 4,050, citing a decline in the near-term U.S. recession risk and a stronger earnings outlook for the largest technology-related companies, according to a research note on Tuesday from Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist & head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse Securities USA. The S&P 500 is currently at 4,545 and up about 18% for the year so far. The company also said it raised its 2023 earnings per share estimates to $220 from $215 and its 2024 EPS forecast to $237 from $220, noting additional 2024 growth tied in part to a rebound in technology-focused company earnings and to buybacks. "Our base case is that a recession will be averted, inflation will remain sticky near current levels, and monetary policy will tighten incrementally," Golub and other Credit Suisse strategists wrote. Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Chris Reese and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Caroline Valetkevitch, Chris Reese, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: YORK, Credit Suisse, Credit Suisse Securities USA, Suisse, Thomson

☆ Credit Suisse raises S&P 500 target to 4,700 — highest on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Credit Suisse thinks this year's market run has more to go, raising its S & P 500 forecast to the highest on Wall Street. Jonathan Golub, the bank's head of U.S. equity strategy, hiked his S & P 500 year-end target to 4,700 from 4,050. Stocks have been on a surprising tear in 2023, with the S & P 500 climbing about 18% despite concerns over inflation, rising interest rates and a potential U.S. economic recession. The run has left many Wall Street strategists flat-footed. The next highest target on the Street besides Golub is CFRA at 4,575.

Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Stocks, Michael Bloom Organizations: Suisse Locations: Monday's, Golub, CFRA, China

☆ Wall Street is worried the stock market is already overvalued
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Even as the stock market is just trying to claw its way out of a bear market, multiple Wall Street firms on Thursday raised concerns that equities are already overvalued. Following a breakout in the past month, the S & P 500 is up more than 20% from its October low and is at a 13-month high. But while an official bull market is not yet confirmed (S & P 500 needs to hit a new all-time high for that), the stock market may already be overvalued, some major strategists said. .SPX ALL mountain S & P 500 long term The S & P 500 is trading at forward price-earnings ratio of 18.8, compared to the average valuation of 15.4 times the last four decades, according to UBS. Nevertheless, normally uber-bullish Wall Street is having trouble seeing boom times ahead for equity investors with valuations already so high.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, annualized, Jonathan Golub, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Global Wealth Management, Americas, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse

☆ Halfway through 2023 Wall Street still can't agree on the earnings outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A strange year: Halfway through, there is a wide difference of opinion on earnings Strategists analyze the macroeconomy to come up with an estimate for corporate earnings. They analyze individual company performance to come up with earnings estimates, which are then aggregated into an overall estimate by agencies like FactSet or Refinitiv. The S & P 500 reported $218 in earnings in 2022, according to Refinitiv. This highlights the difference between analysts and strategists: Analysts have models for earnings of individual companies, not the macroeconomy as strategists do. However, in this case, their reticence to slash earnings estimates in expectation of an imminent recession or a banking crisis has proved to be correct.

Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Mike Wilson's, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Brian Belski, Jonathan Golub, Lori Calvasina, Savita Subramanian, Chris Harvey, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Hatzius Organizations: Here's, BMO, Credit, RBC, Wells, Bloomberg, Bank Locations: U.S

☆ These 15 stocks will matter the most to corporate profits during a quarter where earnings will fall again, according to Credit Suisse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are preparing for a second straight quarter of negative earnings growth. Credit SuisseMarkets are bracing for weaker profits in seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, Golub wrote. Q1 earnings revisions are more negative than usual, according to Credit Suisse. Weaker bottom-lines are also masking anticipated strength in sales growth, Credit Suisse found. Those 15 stocks are below, along with the ticker, weight of S&P 500 profits, expected earnings growth, and expected contribution to earnings growth for each.

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

☆ The most closely watched recession indicator is telling markets that a downturn won't materialize for another 2 years, Credit Suisse chief stock strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The most closely watched recession indicator is saying a downturn won't happen for another two years. That's because the Treasury futures market suggests the yield curve inversion will last until 2026, Credit Suisse's Jonathan Golub said. Golub predicted a downturn to strike in August 2025 based on historical data. When short term bond yields surpass longer term yields, it is a notorious indicator of an incoming recession. On the more bearish end, Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist warned of a 26% stock market crash, as higher interest rates weigh on equities.

☆ Investors fear inflation, higher yields may make U.S. equities 'dead money'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Jonathan Golub, managing director at Credit Suisse, is among those with a bleak outlook for equities. "A six-month (Treasury) yield effectively guaranteed at 5.25% changes the dynamics for investors when the stock market looks shaky," he said. "You would need to get risk-adjusted returns in equities of at least 1 or 2 percentage points more than that, so in that environment stocks are not worth the effort and are dead money. Still, stocks have managed to hold onto their year-to-date gains so far even as bond yields have risen, with the S&P 500 up 4% and the Nasdaq Composite up nearly 11%. "You no longer have to hold your nose and invest in stocks because there's no other alternative," he said.

☆ Historic move in Treasury yields signals high inflation but maybe not a recession anytime soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

An inverted yield curve is considered a forewarning for recession, and the already-inverted yield curve stretched even wider this week to its most inverted level since 1981. The yield curve becomes inverted when short-duration yields rise above longer duration yields, as in the case of the 2-year Treasury yield and the 10-year yield. 10Y2YS 1Y line inversion Recession or a sign of inflation? The current shape of the yield curve tells you more about sticky inflation." Golub said the outcome of the inverted curve's recession warning has been different in periods of high inflation versus low inflation.

☆ Shrinking profits: Strategists are again starting to reduce 2023 earnings estimates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Call it the "incredible shrinking earnings story." Strategists are again starting to reduce earnings estimates. Analysts began cutting 2023 earnings estimates aggressively in the third quarter of last year. Earnings: shrinking fast (S & P 500 2023 estimates) June 2022: $252 Dec. 1: $231 Jan. 1: $229 Today: $222 Source: Refinitiv Jonathan Golub at Credit Suisse is the latest strategist to lower 2023 earnings estimates due to "margin pressures." The inflation reports are going in the wrong direction, so now we have the paradigm changing from "Lower inflation, moderating rates = earnings stabilize in second half" to "higher inflation, higher rates = earnings decline again in second half."

☆ Margins are coming in broadly worse, says Credit Suisse's Jonathan Golub
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMargins are coming in broadly worse, says Credit Suisse's Jonathan GolubJonathan Golub, Credit Suisse chief U.S. equity strategist and head of quantitative research, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the market and why he is lowering his guidance on '23-'24 earnings estimates.

☆ Analysis: U.S. stocks’ early-year rally is melting away as Treasury yields surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Cracks are widening in an early-year rally in stocks, as rising Treasury yields bolster the allure of bonds and skew equity valuations. Stocks are still sitting on sizeable year-to-date gains, though some of their rally has melted away in recent days. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down 4.4% from its recent highs, but remains up 4.1% year-to-date. That is a "death zone" that makes the "risk-reward very poor" for stocks, strategist Michael Wilson wrote. To be sure, bullish investors might have history on their side, thanks in part to January’s hefty 6.2% gain for the S&P 500.

☆ U.S. companies face more pain as expected ‘earnings recession’ looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Expectations for U.S. earnings to decline in the first and second quarter come amid weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results for 2022, which Credit Suisse estimates will be the worst earnings season outside of a recession in 24 years. With fourth-quarter 2022 earnings estimated to have fallen from a year ago, a subsequent decline in the first quarter of 2023 would put the S&P 500 into a so-called earnings recession, a back-to-back decline in earnings that hasn't occurred since COVID-19 blasted corporate results in 2020. Fourth-quarter results are in already from 344 of the S&P 500 companies, and the quarter's earnings are estimated at this point to have fallen 2.8% from the year-ago period, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. Most strategists expect little improvement for the season, and analysts now forecast S&P 500 earnings falling 3.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2023 and 3.1% for the second quarter. The S&P 500 notched its biggest percentage weekly decline since mid-December last week, though the index is up about 7% for the year to date.

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